JF Ptak Science Books Post 2815 (Thanks to Cosmo Rare Books, where I saw a reference to this work; all images and text for the Wintle article are found at Hathi Trust.)
W.J. (William James) Wintle, "Life in our New Century", in The Harmsworth/London Magazine, volume 5 (new series) #30, pp 531-538, 1901.
(Source with full text and other illustrations at Hathi Trust.)
W.J. Wintle contributed a sober look into the near-future of technology and society, basing his outlook not so much on possibilities but on existing (or nearly/possibly so) tech, which is a smart move for trying to access the expansion of human knowledge: "To try to peep into the future is the work of the seer or the prophet, and we make no claim to be either the one or the other. But there are certain tendencies of modern progress and discovery which will become translated into actual facts within a very few years, and it needs no prophet to fore cast what these will be."
The author (who contributed regularly to the magazine) raises some interesting and reasonable technical points which for the most part are mostly correct, in a larger and more general sense. The details of the technical developments miss the point and in many cases are superseded by far more elegant inventions and discoveries that would take place in mere decades, if not sooner, rushing the “future” of Mr. Wintle (1861-1934) into a timeline within his own lifetime...which happens all of the time.
For example his discussion of “Hertzian waves” soon gives over to the development of the pocket telegraph. Here though he does raise a very interesting point which to my experience is very scarce—he points out that with this pocket telegraph it makes it possible for a person to communicate with another person without knowing where they were. ("...a system of pocket telegraphy, by means of which a man may carry his own apparatus in his pocket and receive messages even from people who. do not know where he is").
That idea would certainly have been a shocking revelation to the high Victorian.
As you can see in the accompanying text images below, Wintle discusses a sort of television (the “electroscope”) where people could go to a theater to witness an event rather than attend the event itself. The opening image of the view of London shows us what the author suggests may be the direction of standard flying services throughout the city, necessitating rooftop terminals throughout London to accommodate the growth of dirigible fleets. There is also a suggestion for heavier-than-air flying machines—Mr. Wintle gets the general sense of that right, though the technical aspects of bird-wing-motioned aircraft was off the mark.
The author raises some very interesting social and economic observations, some of which are spot-on:
- “The development of "stores" and "universal providers" will probably sweep the small trader out of the field, and then it will be but the next step for the municipality to take over the control. Whether such a development would be for the ultimate good either of the individual or the community is a very complex question, and one not admitting a general answer. Fortunately we are not called upon to discuss the matter here.”
The jury is for the most part still out on this one, though for certain businesses and industries—for example, the independent bookstore—have been swallowed whole with a resulting and general long-term detriment to society.
At the end of the article is this provocative question:
- “Shall we advance in the direction of socialism? Who can say? Yet it is pretty certain that the tendency is for the Imperial Government and the various local and municipal authorities more and more to take charge of the affairs of the individual. The supply of gas, water, and electricity, the provision of dwellings for the artisan classes, the education both of children and adults — these and many other similar matters are no longer left wholly to the enterprise of individuals. To a large extent they are now provided by the State. It is probable that the new century will see very considerable advance in this direction, though he would be a rash prophet who should predict the complete municipalisation of the domestic and business life of the community.”
I suspect that most people would not think of “socialism” in terms of the distribution of general utilities, or having a municipal fire department which did not operate on subscription, or having a standing police force, or public health, or public schools, and so on, most of which were already in either developing or fully-formed stages when Wintle wrote this in 1901.
And it seems to Mr. Wintle that the capacity to make more people happier with scientific and technical advancement could remove the agencies that give rise to war—here he certainly has too firm a belief in the gentle nature of humankind to be correct:
- “A moment's reflection will show that aerial navigation, rapid transit, the electroscope, and other inventions that we have named, will all tend to make crime and war more difficult, while improved social conditions will make them less attractive.”
Perhaps this will be a more attractive and probable condition at some point in the future that we are not living in right now.
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