FRANKLIN, Benjamin. "Meteorological Imaginations and Conjectures" in Memoirs of the Literary and Philosophical Society of Manchester, Warrington, printed by W. Eyres for T. Cadel in London, 1785. xxiii, (I), 473, (12)pp plus 3 engraved plates (two folding); viii,514,(12), plus 2 folding plates. Vellum-like spine, marbled boards; paper spine labels professionally replaced; text edges untrimmed. Original (or 18th c) owner's name written in ink on title page of each volume. Lovely copies of this scarce title. VG condition. $1500.00
The Franklin contribution occupies 357-361.
Franklin also contributes the following: "On the Different Quantities of Rain which Fall, at Different Heights, over the same spot of ground, with a letter from Benjamin Franklin...by Thomas Percival", pp 106-113, with the extract from the Franklin letter on pp 110-113.
According to the American Institute of Physics website pages on the "Discovery of Global Warming", this is the earliest paper in the field. (It is the first listed in their chronological bibliography, and is the only 18th century notation, and is also only one of seven papers listed printed before 1850.)
"The “dry fog” that blanketed much of Europe during the summer of 1783 had occasioned much scientific speculation, but its cause was as yet unknown. In this paper, written nearly a year after the fog first appeared, Franklin was less concerned with its cause (though he did propose a theory that would turn out to be correct) than with its effect, proposing a connection between the summer’s fog and the exceptionally cold winter that followed.--" National Archives Founders online
"In 1783 a volcanic fissure in Iceland erupted with enormous force, pouring out cubic kilometers of lava. Layers of poisonous ash snowed down upon the island. The grass died, and three-quarters of the livestock starved to death, followed by a quarter of the people. A peculiar haze shadowed western Europe for months. Benjamin Franklin, visiting France, noticed the unusual cold that summer and speculated that it might have been caused by the volcanic 'fog' that visibly dimmed the sunlight" American Institute of Physics online
“During several of the summer months of the year 1783, when the effect of the sun’s rays to heat the earth in these northern regions should have been greatest, there existed a constant fog over all Europe, and great part of North America.” He observed the effect the fog had on the sun’s rays: “They were indeed rendered so faint in passing through it, that when collected in the focus of a burning glass, they would scarce kindle brown paper. Of course, their summer effect in heating the earth was exceedingly diminished.”
"He drew some important conclusions: 'Hence the surface was early frozen. Hence the first snows remained on it unmelted, and received continual additions. Hence the air was more chilled, and the winds more severely cold. Hence perhaps the winter of 1783-4 was more severe, than any that had happened for many years.' Franklin was arguably the first American scientist to recognize the sensitivity of climate to changes in radiative forcing, and to propose that the Earth can respond in a way that reinforces the change (now known as ice-albedo feedback).
"Franklin’s logic is clear. Changes in the atmosphere’s radiative properties can affect weather and climate. The response of the Earth can amplify those changes. This can lead to problems, even if the details of the causes are uncertain. Resources should be spent on research to understand and predict changes to anticipate and avoid negative consequences to the extent we are able. --Mark Boslough, Contributor, HuffPost, "Ben Franklin, Climate Science, and National Security", 2017
Many other papers of interest can be found in these volumes as well.
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